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Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

so an overview would be like this in the

past the two parents on average got six

children

the reason the population was not

growing here from the year 2000 from the

year you know when we started

agriculture way back then 5,000 years

ago it took five thousand years to go

from ten million to 1 billion this is 1

billion here it is because 1 2 3 4 died

sadly before growing up to have children

themselves the past was ugly human

beings have never ever lived in

ecological balance with nature that's a

myth

people have been dying in ecological

balance with nature it's due to high and

tragic death rates of children and young

people that there's been a balance

between human and nature and that's ugly

and people hated it and they wanted

their children to survive and after the

Industrial Revolution we got soap

industrially produced soap we got piped

water and we got some medical actions

you know and instead of for dying for

survived and to died and that caused the

growth of the population you see to

parents for children doubling in one

generation 25 years 1 billion to two

billion 25 years more 2 billion to

forbid and there we went to 7 billion

people and this is what many co

population explosion raghava yeah but it

was inevitable we didn't want kids to

continue to die and people would not

apply family planning until they saw

their kids surviving all this the death

rate has to fall before the birthrate is

falling and and and then many call this

exponential growth have you heard the

term exponential growth this is

exponential faster and forever since

1960 we have had no exponential growth

whatsoever we've had an absolutely

linear growth and for those of you doing

math you know that linear grow

of means that the interest rate is

falling every year we added 1 billion in

14 years 1 billion in 14 years 1 billion

in 14th year that means the adding of

billions did not become faster and

faster but there's so much crap written

and said about population growth so they

are put in these X's explosion

exponentially and you argue for things

based on scare trying to scare people

instead of making them understand here

now we have a situation where we will

add another 4 billion in spite of

already having reached the new balance

this is strange why will we add 4

billions when the number of children

have stopped increasing right strange

this one the balance was controlled by

death it was ugly and unacceptable

people would never accept that they

tried their best this balance is

controlled by love by being able to

disentangle sexuality and reproduction

and some religious leaders haven't got

it yet we try to make it very simple to

understand this is a good thing it's a

good thing that you can separate those

two and and and why will it be 11

billions well I have some more improved

educational material from Gapminder here

I brought these blocks here imagine that

this is 1 billion people you can see

here 1 billion people and these ones or

children below 15 here's the edge see

they are below 15 these are the children

there 2 billion in the world next age

group 15 to 30 there are also almost 2

billions I'm going to simplify not

falsify but simplify really it's

actually 1.8 or something here but I say

to Bill next group I say it's 1 billion

it's actually 1.4

but they are less here next group 45 to

60 1 billion almost precisely 1 bin then

it's my group 60 years and older and we

are not really 1 billion but almost and

we take the help by some really old

people who join our group here so we

have this is the world population today

this is the world the compositional

world population you could call it a

population pyramid more in the base than

up here now many think that the reason

these are missing is because they died

no no some are missing because they died

most are missing because they were never

born it was back then 30 to 60 years ago

there were fewer people born because

there were fewer women then more and

more survived and then we got this

situation now the number of children

will not increase these to billions will

remain to billions for the rest of this

century and the 71-year of life

expectancy won't increase that much so

let's assume that that stays the same so

if number of children stays the same

length of life stays the same what will

happen because there's some people

telling me the environmental problems

are so severe so we have to stop world

population below 10 billion hi is that

so have you studied demography I think

yes yes yes we have to stop it no you

can't I see and I will show you know why

you can't stop it below 10 because

imagine let's look at it let's look at

my group what happened to people like me

do you know that no one has a family

that are Undertaker's they die we die

the old people die some think we become

angels some things we just disappear

anyhow they disappear what happens to

the rest of you you grow older you grow

older and older and older and 15 years

from now you have changed age group and

then other children come and replace you

down there can you see same amount of

children as I show you

then they old died the rest grow older

and older and older and get the same

amount of chill thirty years from now

then they old die is not so difficult

you get it now they die the rest grow

older and older and older and here they

are I mean this this is you started down

there most of you students one two three

this is when you are up here you are 60

years old you become like me you see

when you are like me it's filled up to

here and we have three billion more you

saw the magic without increasing the

number of children without increasing

the length of life we got three billion

more I'll do it once more because you're

in doubt the summit thing here I made

this up you know in some way the old

dies the rest grow older and they get

children they all die the rest grow

older they get children they all die the

rest grow older they get children and

there are inevitably you will have three

billion more people because death starts

up here at this edge relatively few die

here a 135 million children born six

million die every year it's down to 5%

that's mainly down here our depth then

death rate is relatively low all the way

up because life expectancy 71 now in

spite of instead of getting shorter life

what we think is that we will get longer

life and we think we will get 1 billion

more up there because I'm very happy of

that that will give me 15 years more to

follow statistics you know so now that

there is some people just wrote in the

Swedish newspaper and criticized means

that we must be less than 10 billions

but who should we take away which one do

they want to remove

there should be that you know they take

away the old but is still 10 billion

stay until then you want to take more

can you kill these two no say no for

God's sake it's for better don't be in

doubt it's absolutely forbidden ourself

not clean haven't you read the Bible so

what shall you do what shall you do I

think you will have to do it like this

you have to force people to just a one

child do you see if you do not much the

tomb date say you introduce one child

French it's very delicate here to be

careful if they did it like this then

they can get a failure

you think people voluntarily will go for

one child no I suggested to the leader

of the Swedish environmental party who

argue that one time and said that that

you know we should have less people in

the world I said I am we talked with her

and I said yeah why don't you start with

Sweden there because we are one of the

rich country that increased the number

of children per room it's quite easy you

just take away the child allowances the

subsidies for the daycare center and you

put in school fees three simple measures

as a politician the number of children

per woman the Sweden will drop from two

to 1.5 of course you will lose the next

election action and you have to make a

coup d'etat you know and become dictator

it's very strange how serious people can

suggest this now I share the concern

about the environment I share the

concern about elephants and rhinos I

share more than anyone else the consider

to concern about the climate but I ain't

going to kill people to achieve I ain't

going to force people to get sterilized

I ain't come to become Nazi - because it

won't work people won't accept

they won't accept it and and and here

you can see so I think we will have to

yes this is like oh you can't you can't

mix up with population like that it's

very dangerous have to be careful with

people all right you have to be very

careful with people so they can live

this in their life I think the solution

for the world lies in respecting people

you know and seeing what it is and

that's not difficult we know everyone

should have access to contraceptives

everywhere but not be forced because if

you force people it will backfire and we

know that the poorest in Africa they

will not use contraceptive as long as

they say their children die as long as

they don't have a school in the village

as long as they need their children for

work Malala said they don't go to school

because they have to work to support

their family and as long as things are

like this they want their kids and then

some wants their kid a little too long

many kids because some men are proud

because I made so many children and when

men think that their pride is having

seven eight nine children instead of how

well their children are doing that's

old-fashioned Patriarca girl thinking

men have to think my pride is how well

my children are doing how happy they are

in life that's my pride and when you get

that attitude change you have to get

it's not only providing services this is

the number of births in the world it has

already happened the number of births is

not increasing any longer in the world

the adults are increasing you get it now

you understand why these adults already

it's these three just by the fill-up

and it's this group here but it's more

to it it's more to it we have to go a

little more into details a little more

into details look here now it's late in

the evening and I put a demanding

explanation demography here to you each

doll here is hundred million now these

one were thousand millions 1 billion

thousand 8

now ten out of these dolls is one here

down here I have what is it should be

about twenty down there

these ones are Europeans children these

are American children these are African

children as many children in Africa as

in the whole of the Americas in Europe

together and these are Asian children

and you can see that at the age between

fifteen and thirty then there are less

Africans he is even less African he is

very few Africans so the African

population is quite dramatic it's in

increasing the number of children in

Asia they've stopped increasing remember

the Asian curve it was already down to

two so Asia is not increasing Africa is

at four point five they will continue to

increase for another thirty years more

or less 30 years so what happens here is

the following you know it now the old

dies the rest grow older and they have

their children whoop one more in Africa

one less in Asia that's why the number

of children doesn't increase the

increase of children in Africa is

compensated by a decrease of children in

Asia and Europe but Europe is so little

it doesn't matter much they die they

grow older and they get children one

more in Africa out of things like this

out of four children in China that pass

their 15th birthday three are replaced

by a Chinese baby born and one is

replaced by the Nigerian baby born that

means that children conceptually

are moving from Asia to Africa children

in the world remain the same but they

are moving towards poverty because in

poverty the number of children increase

where countries are more wealthy the

number decrease that's why it's a good

reason to support UNICEF children in the

world need support and here they die

they get older and they get children and

they die and they get older and they get

children and this is the Phillipa

battles you remember the three billion

show you here these three billions is

the same as that group there when I make

it in more detail

it's a fill up of people and that's why

Africa will increase so much and Asia

will increase so much Africa also

increase here because an increase of

children and Asia decrease down there so

longer life this one I hope to be this

one I can follow statistics for 15 more

years you know and see what happens

this we don't know we don't know here

you see if people want to decrease the

number of people in the world they think

provide prevent contraceptives in Africa

yes go for it but don't think you can

force poor women's poor women are clever

otherwise they are dead don't think they

are dumb they want many children it's

because they see their children dying

they need their kids who help them they

get the better life mediately they will

ask first for family planning to space

children to wait for the next child and

then decide how many they with that this

is a new tool that Gapminder have made

on our webpage