[Music]
for perfection
all right ladies and gentlemen i got
your watch that's coming in october 12
2020 and the stock market
is not going crazy we are going to have
an interesting week this week we have
earnings kicking off with the banks and
some health care companies however
considering last week we are expecting a
little bit more upside here but
there is nothing that should make us go
too crazy
except for leading into next week so
after we get
some companies this week we have
earnings next week and i think that's
when things are going to go crazy but
we still have a lot of stuff to look at
this week and i'm hoping that if i say
it's not going to be crazy it does
actually end up being crazy so
we have a lot to talk about i'm going to
explain what is happening in the stock
market this week everything to look for
from global events even the u.s and
there was some changes overseas that i
can't wait to highlight and show you but
a few different things that we're
watching this week we got the plays we
got the keys
everything else we're looking at
tomorrow i have a few specific set of
plays and that is pretty much it so
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so right off the bat first thing is
stimulus negotiation this is what we saw
last week this is definitely going to
dominate headlines again i think this
week but
we did see it take somewhat of a turn
this weekend even coming into the end of
this week if you guys even remember
it was a really weird couple of days
that led us up to higher points but
the stimulus was going back and forth
again that was this was the first week
after the trump health scare
so there was a few different things
going on but now with the stimulus
negotiations
even on friday we saw one last like last
ditch effort that it was doing a little
bit better but again markets were
already up anyways but
that seemed to have gotten an egg
throughout the day and then finally we
got updates over the weekend of what
happened
it looks like they're trying to do a
separate vote to get stimulus passed
through or just for the ppe the paytech
protection
but it looks like both sides are kind of
getting frustrated even the white house
went up and this bailout is still of a
very large scale
so there was talks on it but it seems
like the fact that it's taking this turn
into both bipartisan sides kind of like
hey we just need to pass something
and you even see wall street where the
markets are at it looks like the market
really does think we're gonna get a deal
and a deal soon
the real question is if it happens
before or after the election and either
way though i think the market is just
guaranteeing that it's gonna come here
and it may not be as concerned with time
so
these headlines will dominate again i
would watch for any surprise or even
just
surprises or developments that could
change this another thing that's been
talked about this blue wave
and we're going to kind of see that a
little bit poke its head this week i
think but talking about
if biden did win again there was a lot
of that last week
but now you're kind of seeing that take
a little bit more effect but i want to
see
how that plays out and we'll watch the
bark and that's what i'm saying
surprises stimulus
this is hinting at what's going to
happen or even the price action of the
market will let us know there so watch
out for that
this week also too we are going to get
the bank earnings
so you're going to get like johnson and
johnson and a few other like decent
sized healthcare companies but there
isn't that many earnings this week it's
going to be the big banks jp morgan
wells fargo
those will be important but then next
week after this you're gonna start to
get a hundred companies a week and now
earnings season kicks off
it's gonna be important i hope you guys
are ready for that but we could even
start setting up for plays on that
now finally as far as global the rest of
this week
there is stuff with china i want to talk
about you are going to get some of their
trade data which can be important
we're going to have i think some retail
numbers and industrial production out
the u.s
there is an important date with the uk
on october 15th
with brexit and kind of following
through there so there's all of that
stuff but
china did make a big change this week
and one thing i want to highlight
is the currency and here is china's
currency strengthening with this chart
going down and really when we start to
like pull this out
you know 2015 was a really really big
event uh you guys have heard me talk
about that play we did like 2 000 into a
quarter million
this was a really big global volatile
event china was a part of that but what
it had to do with was the weakening of
the currency so
now you have a big strengthening and why
i'm bringing this all up because over
the weekend now
this has been one of the biggest
strengthening cycles for
the yuan and now this will affect oil
that's one thing i will say watch out
for but it has strengthened so much
that china now has implemented a rule or
they rolled back a rule that they
implemented in in september of 2015 to
combat
one of their biggest weakening so pretty
much the chinese government is kind of
they want to bring back some weakening
here and this this is just interesting
from a macro perspective
remind me about this tomorrow we'll talk
about it but
the fact that they're tinkering with
this little rule is very very important
here but
as far as when it will come into
fruition we will see
but globally we're going to get data
from them this week amongst other things
and now like i'm saying pairing this
with oil
what's going on with the uk these global
events will be key to watch i think over
the next few weeks and then
depending on what happens domestically
here we will be able to see if there is
something or
direction that can point to winners and
losers in that instance so
it should be a simple and
straightforward week again there's going
to be a few different things we've
already been looking at
the question is going to be if there
really is any surprises or not
and if not we should have our work cut
out for us with earnings so i hope
you're ready but
that is pretty much it so let us get
into the plays
so right off the bat uh i have a few
different plays actually
uh from all different sets i'm actually
gonna get really i might get a little
bit aggressive coming into this week it
all depends what the market throws at us
but
first play i'm gonna be looking at
draftkings we need to average down on
that credit spread
i think i might have to do an average
and run pretty much i'm gonna look to
make a big average down
if the price goes against me bigger and
then i could just literally profit off a
much smaller move to just get me out of
there so
i'm still holding this draftking spread
we're down about five thousand dollars
on it
my average credit is a dollar twenty
four so if i could find a way
to raise that credit up to like three
bucks or something
and i only need the contracts to move a
dollar i might do that but
this is gonna be the moment of truth
this week on this play make sure you
guys pay attention
especially if you've been watching the
credit spreads because how we maneuver
this is going to be key
we talked about that last week because
depending on what was going on
with some of the other plays how we
average down decided to get out
those would it would make a really
really big difference between making a
lot or losing a lot so watch that play
that's the first one i want to watch but
i might even grab shares and why i'm
saying this
because they got upgraded so a lot of
people have been talking about i think
they got a recent one over the weekend
we might see more but people still like
it again i think it was just a bad
timing with the nfl news but that
offering but the offering was at a
higher price the stock is trading below
what they sold 1.5 billion at
i still like that so it's getting near
our entry price for the shares but i may
even
consider picking up shares this week as
well too it will depend what happens
with that credit spread but it's gonna
put me in a good position because
essentially if i lose
on the credit spread and it really
really does crater i'm gonna buy a ton
of shares if not and it goes back up if
i miss out getting shares i'll be able
to get a
pretty sizable amount of money back that
i'm already down on so
that's the first one and now in the same
breath again there's a lot of companies
that got these upgrades in that they've
kind of been these runaway stocks and i
like them
and i want to see this week some of them
have earnings next week and in the weeks
after that
some of them have already reported but
there's a big set of these tech stocks
i'll show you when we get to the chart
you'll see them but i like peloton etsy
snapchat pinterest
a lot of these stocks that have just
been the ones that have gone up
hundreds of percent in this last few
months but now they're still getting
upgraded kind of being seen as these
winners of kovid
i really really really like those so i'm
going to be looking at those again
just coming into earnings we want to be
able to see in time
that moment that we get some of those
earnings run up so those are companies i
want to be looking at but we will see
next in the spirit of kind of these
broader plays and hopefully you guys can
see i have companies
that i want with a broader thesis but
then also i'm looking at specific ones
this one you could tweak this idea you
could tweak this idea as well too
but i want to look for caesar puts i'll
show you on the chart they're up
and then airline calls pretty much i
kind of want to make a stimulus strangle
in a way
where we could get puts on the ones that
are really attractive for the puts and
then calls on the ones that are really
attractive for call so what i'm saying
by that might as well just show you guys
now like if you come to caesars you take
a look at them on the daily they're
they're up a lot even on the one year
you come up they're pretty much back to
these pre-covered levels so
the put is a lot more attractive on
downside if there isn't stimulus
or if they don't become a winner of the
stimulus you know you could see
they have more meat on the bone for the
downside but then we come to ual it's
literally 180 they're at the bottom so
it's like
i kind of want to do a straddle where
it's like hey who would the real winners
of losers be of the stimulus and kind of
picking and choosing so
i like that idea i'm going to look for
that tomorrow
i think that that play will also have a
lot of time to develop because
it is all dependent on the news so this
back and forth whipsawing with the
government stimulus congress
that will kill premium so timing is
going to be key
on a lot of these plays uh obviously and
then finally
the final play this one was a really
really weird one i made this on friday
i woke up and i like had like a dream
about truecar so i grabbed a thousand
shares
that's the weird type of investment
that's why none of this is a
recommendation again
you guys can see the performance of
investing on dreams and listening to
homeless people
but i grabbed a thousand of these shares
and at
five dollars at 5 45 and then we also
did a quick options flip but that was
pretty much it we'll go over
that play true card i think was the only
other play that i made on friday
yeah i grabbed 100 of the november 20th
at 15 cents they shot up i sold 50 back
at 47 cents i made them free so i'm
still holding the other five but
i just like that play i think it's just
very very interesting but
i kind of like the value proposition
considering it's it's at the lower end
of the chart i guess
higher on the one year but we will see i
don't really have too much faith in that
play but that's why most of it isn't
shares we've already made it free the
key is
shared but as far as everything else
what i'll be looking for uh this week
there's other plays i like
dominoes if you guys remember why this
one caught my attention
we grabbed the domino's uh earnings
continuations
but they're expiring october 16th so i
believe is that this week
yeah that makes sense they're expiring
this week but there's a lot of contracts
that pretty much got
cheaper so you can see this this is a
continuation it's moving down but
i think i was a little too far out the
money i'm at the 350s it's still at 390
but you can see it shot up a little bit
at one point but then it came right back
down but
a lot of these contracts didn't go too
crazy or they would and then they would
depreciate fast so
i kind of like them on the put side but
if they have another third day of coming
down i think that'll be good but i'm
still in that play for the most part
just that break even
probably will expire worthless
considering that so maybe
even selling domino's puts too would be
a good one on credit spreads because if
this keeps dropping
and those puts are getting expensive but
ultimately not expiring in the money
that is what you want with a credit
spread so remind me about those too but
i also like snapchat we also have
october plays the in near the monies are
holding up but the ones outside of the
money are depreciating and that's what i
kind of like
with these plays then watch netflix two
this one's gonna be earnings and i
believe they report
next week too or the week after this
week but they are usually one
they have a good earnings run up i want
to see even with credit spreads but now
in the name of all these like earnings
runaways i know etsy got to upgrade i
believe twilio gotta upgrade
peloton and then pinterest and etsy
again both pinterest
i don't know if they got to upgrade but
i know etsy did but all of these are
those kind of you
they're kind of similar companies or
these kind of they have brand image in a
way they're kind of niche markets but
they've been they've been doing
different stuff i like them
but what i like about all of these plays
is that given the last few weeks there's
been some winners and losers
and this is making some of those options
cheaper so even though now
the stocks are going up and up and up
and up those out of the monies that
didn't appreciate as much
those are still cheaper so now we might
it's going to be a high risk to reward
because if the momentum stops you get
clapped there's a reason why those
contracts didn't go up but
this starts going crazy in earnings
there could be some pretty cheap
opportunities still
so watch all of those watch fedex again
that's another example we have those
fedex they're literally at breakeven
same philosophy we played it post
earnings
we've held it for a while so pretty much
all i'm talking about is theta
a lot of these contracts have had time
decay if they were out of the money
so they're either holding the same value
or not but there's still momentum and
this is usually what we like
you may miss the first leg but if you
could get the direction of the stock
and not having to pay as much money
that's actually the best thing you can
do
but control the balance and we'll see
and then finally ulta
doesn't have an upgrade or anything but
this is one of those post-earnings that
kind of reminded me of fedex we have
some of those plays
and then amazon they have their black
friday this week or their black friday
you know amazon day that they're doing
so that's going to be interesting i
think there's going to be good headlines
they could have a good earnings run up i
think this is just going to be a good
one
both earnings run up and credit spreads
we did we did a pretty good one last
week so
there is definitely some opportunities
we'll see and then finally
this was related to the chinese thing
again uup
and tlt will be important but i think
this week i want to take a look at gold
especially with china
so if that chinese currency stuff starts
to move i think
this even just made our theory a lot
more complex that's why i remind me
about that china thing tomorrow
we'll talk about it but i think chinese
currency
might come back to play a bigger
influence and i think that influence is
going to be
felt through gold so depending on what
happens with the chinese currency
i think we might see a leading or
lagging indicator with gold so i hope
you're ready but
that is your watches ladies and
gentlemen mr hydra healthy ready to go
make sure you post your watch let's make
sure we see you there in the morning i
need the armor on i need the helmet
shining i need you ready to close out
the end of the year baby it's earning
season small good decisions control the
ballast catch all the batch i get the
lantern but
nicole loves you i love you and we'll
see you in the morning let's go
[Music]