Why is the stock market closed on good friday
Is the stock market closed today for Good Friday?
what the hell robin hood is doing it
again
but this time they didn't just shut down
you know
buying on gme now you can't trade
anything
they've shut down trading on the entire
market
i'm just playing around so yeah the
the stock market is closed like almost
all the trading is closed today for good
friday
everything will be open like american
trading markets will be open
for easter on monday um european markets
are going to be close monday
but i want to take a look at the market
because there is still off-market
trading happen and it's super super
super drama
like the s p is back effing the freaking
channel like right now on off hours
you can't trade it well not with options
anyway
so let's do a check in let's look at a
couple things things are still happening
off hours so yeah oh
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let's go
so yeah it's good friday and the markets
are
closed today but there's off market
activity happening in a couple of the
charts
so i may as well do a little review look
at the s p
cannot make this up it is
doing exactly the thing so
s p threw a freaking vertical dart
straight
up into the bottom of the bull channel
and got rejected okay so now
i kind of i have this like expanding you
know
this expanding wedge thing whatever this
thing is called
uh so i still am looking at
a reversal point i still have a
short-term bullish and medium-term
bearish
and long-term bullish outlook okay so
i think we're gonna get stuck on the
bottom of this
bull channel again i think we're gonna
get stuck on here
i think we're gonna bust i think we're
gonna bust down out of this
out of this channel um but
look where the top is pointing the top
of this channel is
up here not quite that hot but it's up
here
at the top of the bull channel
and it actually wouldn't surprise me one
little bit
to see us get up here so
this bottom of the bull channel is major
major resistance because we have
rejected off this thing one two three
four five
six now seven times whatever
like we fell out of this bull channel
and we're underneath it
and we're still underneath it so this is
like the
most massive resistance and this is a
key
place to start looking at uh well taking
profit off of longs
and start looking for short entries and
you can't
well not with options anyway there's
probably some off-market trading stuff
you can do but
anyway the s p is right up
under the bull channel in trouble again
um maybe maybe it is in trouble
if i was saying before like once we get
to this channel like the bullish thing
to do is kind of just try to get some
support and hear
and now i'm like wait a second i know
like look at this look at this uptrend
line that we already painted
like is it gonna just sit here if it
gets in here no
it's not gonna do that if we get in here
man we're gonna go up
and we're gonna go get this trend line
we're gonna go get it
and that will be a ridiculous reversal
point
if s p tries to do that that is going to
fail
real hard right there so
it's still really hard for me to try to
go long well i like don't trade the spy
long anyway ever
because there's always a better play
than that if for long plays you got to
figure out what's moving but
uh man
yeah i it's going to be really hard to
bust into this channel
and now we have a three-day weekend and
the stock market really doesn't stop
moving just because the
market's closed so like it's gonna be
crazy stuff that just happens
off you know off trading hours and who
knows like
by the time the market opens we could be
freaking
up here like out of control we could
still be
back effing this channel from underneath
which would be really bearish
actually i'm not really expecting
one of these kind of weak blooms into
the bottom of the channel at this point
just because we have this up trend line
i think if we get in here i think we're
going to pop
and i think if we get underneath uh
we're gonna break down
out of this thing that's the two
scenarios that i think are
most likely and they're both bare
reversal
scenarios so
right i was super short-term bullish
the last two days maybe on the s p
because we're coming up trying to find
this channel
and now we found it so now i can't be
short-term bearish here
i mean if we get up in here and start
going up
i could maybe be bearish for a day or
something because we're trying to get up
but uh
right now s p is in a bad spot and can't
really trade it anyway
that's the look i guess let me just kind
of pull back out
and show the channel again for anyone
that's just popping in
we've been on this bull channel for
several months here
and you can see the
we started well and this is right around
jan six
man this is exactly january 6 is exactly
when the strong dollar
reversal started and the s p started
hating it started chopping right but we
chopped to the channel
fine and then we chopped down right but
we didn't coil under the channel
we just stabbed and we popped back in
all good still all good
but then feb 15 is like the next strong
dollar reversal and this is when we chop
down out of the channel we start coiling
underneath we start rejecting off the
bottom of the channel
we get this grinding reversal off the
bottom of the channel
then this really makes it look ugly this
is why i can't
i can't trust anything inside of the
bull channel after this grinding
reversal off the bottom
like i'm just straight bearish under the
channel
under the channel but it's an uphill
channel so we go up to the channel this
is all-time highs
uh but we're at the channel now so it's
ugly this ugly
let's just show where the dollar is and
i've been talking about the dollar a lot
but this is not trivial um
we had let me go out to like a weekly
and just show the dollar chart and what
i'm explaining
because we had during this entire
bull run we had this super super weak
dollar channel down
and then yeah right here around jan six
we had this
pop and we broke out of the channel
and then we had the uphill w and now
now we're breaking up to the previous
kind of consolidation zone right so we
pulled back off of it
so this is a strong dollar trend line
and we've had strong dollar trend lines
since
2008 and this is what they look like
like the 2008 crash we pulled down
strong dollar reversal right boom
bim it's like l8 09 11.
these are all strong dollar reversals
but see we pull through
yeah we pull through the trim line and
then it gets steeper
and then we get a 14 may 18
right and now we pull down through that
trend line but this trend line is even
steeper
so this is what i've been saying like
brent johnson's like dollar milkshake
theory
matches the trend line that we're on now
this is a steep
more it's a more steep uh strong dollar
trend line
and strong dollar trend lines can run
for three years
five years stuff like that um so if we
get a five year strong dollar like
that's
pretty angry especially if we do
vertical moves up off of it it's just
really uh
it's really aggressive on well the
market
kind of but i mean i've been looking at
oil
and the freaking oil chart so dumb
because we we had the negative contracts
and trading last year so that just like
completely made the chart look
ridiculous
but every time we get strong dollars it
it really like really hurts oil so let's
see where's this jan
six say like gen six strong dollar
reversals where oil is
still busting out of the channel
so this is really strange like
every time over the last 10 years we got
a strong dollar reversal
knocked oil really hard down
and now oil's been rallying into the
strong dollar
until now i just pulled back
but i don't know
i don't know if oil is in trouble it
usually hates the strong dollar
the stock market usually hates a strong
dollar
but i mean you can see it's rallying
anyway
like it is pulling back it's getting
choppy but it's still rallying
into it um
so it's pretty interesting it's pretty
hard to predict like the market
the market seems to just be running on
margin like we have
international banks loaning a ton of
money to funds
on margin and they're just piling tons
of new money into the market is what it
looks like
and basically as long as that continues
it's gonna be
bullish it's just a ton of new money
coming into the market
i'm not buying the scenario that like
stimulus
checks like some millennials with a
thousand dollar
check are like driving this whole bull
market that's ridiculous like this
is loans from international banks on
margin
it's billions and billions of dollars
from from banks it's new money
um loaned out on margin billions and
billions of dollars
not not part of a
one trillion dollar stimulus thing um
where like one percent of that money is
getting invested in some random stocks
like this is huge huge funds and like
each of these funds is
like billions of billions and they're
driving this thing up anyway that's the
that's the idea
that i have on why it's driving up um
just check a couple other things
bitcoin oh and also like the reason
yeah so bitcoin is just kind of
it's kind of stuck here at this level
for a while like around 59 it's been
kind of chopping and testing it
so i think bitcoins a little hot away
from the moving average
i could see a pullback um
or just the consolidation sideways in
bitcoin
i don't think bitcoins just gonna like
run hot like way
farther away from the moving averages
because it usually doesn't get this far
away
from like this is like the 120 day
like bitcoin you usually will pull back
and check in with the 120 day average
more often than this so
i'm expecting some kind of consolidation
move maybe a pullback in bitcoin
um
what else is happening all right tesla i
was talking about
on friday let me get into like an hourly
chart
so tesla has this downtrend line and
that's what i was saying friday is like
we're running into this down channel
here
i was gonna see if it could make it to
the 700 because it loves it but
um yeah just i just caught this and
pulled back
so that's kind of an obvious
short-term spot to check back on
uh if this falls through down i don't
know
if we get let's see if we get the entire
market getting in trouble under the bull
channel and tesla is here rejecting off
this
trend line then tesla could get in big
trouble like tesla could really drop
and
and you can see the downtrend lines like
we've stabbed this thing
four times so we painted a good
downtrend line
but that doesn't mean we're going to
stab it again like that could be the
last step we got a double
kind of a double bottom here and that
could be the last step down for tesla
but
like here you know we kind of rolled
over and we didn't
we didn't hold a support level we rolled
under it
so it's still drooping it's still headed
down it's still checked hard off of this
uh down channel anyway i see a ton of
risk in tesla especially if the general
market
gets in trouble underneath the bull
channel again i think tesla's going to
be a really aggressive short play
arc invest is almost the same chart
similar down channel
our contesta have been sort of my top
two
shorts recently um because we've we've
just seen like text sort of rotating out
and let me look at the this is a cool
chart
um on the on the nasdaq
versus the spx let me go to the weeklies
and show what's up
that's a really cool one
and so all right so i'm going back to
the 80s
so like this everything bubble bull
market really started in
about 1982 the bonds started bubbling in
the 70s the market started picking up in
the 80s
but you can see here it wasn't until the
90s that tech
and the nasdaq started really
outperforming the general market
and we started bullying and this is the
dot-com bubble bust
which was a big deal but it really
didn't break the trend
i mean it just kind of popped and pulled
back and we just continued
more and more out performance on the
nasdaq and you can see the neckline
of the of the dot-com bubble like we've
just
gone to a point where we're
outperforming even the dot-com bubble
now and we gapped up here across the
neckline so
this is a really interesting spot
because if this is a false breakdown
or a false breakout i'm sorry if it's a
false breakout we're probably gonna gap
back across the neck
and that would be a huge down move on
tech
um which i've been calling just like a
rotation
out of tech um but i mean it's still
pretty much hotter than the whole market
at this point but
um but if we see this move and then we
see like a techish kind of
blah blah market
we could have a fast and hot rotation
out of tech and then attack kind of just
a weak
check performance under the rest of the
market if we start moving down but we're
coiling here
we haven't decided or if we pop here
then tech will just freaking blow up and
go crazy so i'm in the camp that i think
we're gonna break down
and i think we're gonna start rotating
out of tech
and the reason i think that is just um
it's just basic
credit expansion cycle stuff like when
you start a new credit expansion
the bonds will bubble first then tech
and growth will bubble
and then when you get starting to get
near the end of the credit extend
uh expansion near the top of the bubble
the bonds will rotate out first and then
we've seen that after you go to like the
bond chart
you can see that the bonds started
rotating out last year
and they're already like well the rest
of the market was crushing it you've
seen bonds just get weak and
terrible um so bonds could be
bearing for a while they've already
rotated out it looks
to me like tech is going to rotate out
next that's what i've been saying
um so that's a very long term
analysis since like 1982 but like
if tech rotates out it's not a joke like
i'm talking about tech rotating out
hard this year and underperforming for
like 30 years against the rest of the
market
and the things that come in when tech
rotates out is
basic materials minerals metals miners
that sort of stuff
and so those are the charts i've been
watching a little bit more closely
um oh gme let's check in on gma
so we need like a five minute chart on
this one
yeah so so gme
gme has been trying to break this one
94 neckline and it failed again on
friday
and we maybe have a support line here
that could pull us through
the neckline coming into next week but
this is not
this is not like a bubble support line
it's not steep enough
this is just sort of here let me uh
take auto off
so we kind of have a lower we have a
lower support line coming up underneath
and you can see this line is almost the
same angle
that's definitely not a bubble take off
sort of a trend line
let me go out to like a 30 minute
so you can see the shape of it so
i painted this line
yesterday and it looks like
this first bubble is just a huge
crossover and we might be in
we might be in a bigger consolidation
channel out until the end of
april or something like that and so i'm
if we do
if we do pop out like on this week trend
line
i want to see if we get stuck at this
256 or if we can get back up to this
neckline at 3 30.
um because the last time we popped 330
we crashed and then we just came
and got stuck under under this trend
line
so i think we might be
consolidating out around this neckline
for an entire another month
which would be sort of
boring i think but also interesting for
swing trading
because we know that this 194 is the
stickiest spot on gme for like two
months
and anytime we get away from it we can
just do like a swing trade to
the 194. if we crash down here
swing trade it to the 194. if we pop up
here swing trade it to the 194.
um that
either that or we can just get out of
here
and we can actually find a bubble trend
line and actually just like blow this
neck out
and just take off um i do think gme is
gonna bubble out
and take off and it might be
in may
if we just consolidate all of april
around the neckline
it's just going to get more and more and
more boring
and then maybe we'll get a breakout i
don't know that's kind of the look on
gme
i really thought we were going to start
taking off this past week and now we're
just kind of consolidating right under
the neckline
it's like i don't like the chart as much
i don't like the upside as much from
that spot
so anyway that's kind of the look on gme
and then these like metals and minerals
and miners
these are kind of the charts that i'm
looking at um
lode is like a small miner fcx is the
big high momentum mining stock that i've
been following
oh god it's like a daily chart
and show this thing has been bowling
since
since the kilowatt crash and it hasn't
been pulling back with the market
pullbacks
very much a little bit but it's staying
really strong
so this is the sector the momentum
leader in the sector that i like
for for the scenario where tech is
rotating out so like shorting tesla out
shorting arc out during a rotation
and then calling like fcx in
calling it up is kind of the idea that
i'm thinking of
um but yeah anyway this is re pretty
cool a pretty cool
spot to be on the general market just
like
right up under this thing
i mean no joke look at it you cannot
make that up like it
just screamed on off market trading dead
into the back of the channel and just
did a vertical freaking reversal off of
it
and it's amazing um all right so we'll
see what we get
we'll see what kind of action we get on
this thing but uh
it's oh it's so annoying
like the coolest stuff always happens
off hours and you can't trade
options and stuff um
super annoying and also super drama
yeah so
i i think that we get stuck under here
and we just do a weak fallout
maybe a back test over the next few days
and i think it i think it's gonna turn
down
out of this because this expanding
wedge thing is it just
usually falls out it just usually turns
over and falls out
and we've already hit it one two three
four five times
[Music]
yeah that's enough i mean that's enough
hits too already be
we don't have to like go up and paint
the
paint the wedge like hot up here but
it's definitely a target
yeah so hot upside target is up here
at 41.36 that's the top of our little
bull channel
getting back up in there uh danger zone
is right here right now at the
low four thousands
this whole area and yeah i just like to
point back at
this area back here
where we were attacking the crap out of
the bottom of the channel it doesn't
line up perfect on a
minute chart it's better on an hour
chart that's where i drew all the lines
but you can see we just reject reject
reject like this grinding multiple
rejection is really
really mean like if you grind like this
you usually don't come back and do it
again
you usually get more of a sharp a sharp
rejection
uh on on a follow up
it's like that's sort of like calling a
dead cat bounce except
it's kind of ridiculous to call it a
dead cat bounce at
all-time highs it's just a rejection off
the channel
um yeah all right so that's kind of the
look for
uh off market kind of coming into
the weekend
what else i don't know doge let's look
at the doge
the doge is a pretty uh interesting
chart
if you go out to i think dailies you can
see what's going on
yeah look it's pretty obvious it's just
it's just pulling up a really mean trend
line
and this is the most like vertical
angular
it's like a right angle freaking
and
if we stick to this trend line we should
be kind of flagging into
logging into it mid april somewhere
um this is a pretty hot candle there
though that's surprising
you usually will pull kind of down when
you're flagging not
pop up like that like this is a more
typical flag where you're kind of
rolling down while you're flagging into
sport this is a really weird flag
or it's almost up i guess
it's like an angular upward on this leg
but anyway that's a look at dish
it looks like it's gonna be over the
next couple weeks coming into support
and it could take off again
whatever that's enough stuff for now
nothing really going on just the
s p at all-time highs rejecting off the
bull channel no big deal
this not investment advice just a couple
of scenarios or kind of what i'm seeing
on the trend lines
so have a good weekend happy good friday
and
cheers
