the

Is the stock market closed today for Good Friday?

what the hell robin hood is doing it

again

but this time they didn't just shut down

you know

buying on gme now you can't trade

anything

they've shut down trading on the entire

market

i'm just playing around so yeah the

the stock market is closed like almost

all the trading is closed today for good

friday

everything will be open like american

trading markets will be open

for easter on monday um european markets

are going to be close monday

but i want to take a look at the market

because there is still off-market

trading happen and it's super super

super drama

like the s p is back effing the freaking

channel like right now on off hours

you can't trade it well not with options

anyway

so let's do a check in let's look at a

couple things things are still happening

off hours so yeah oh

like share comment subscribe turn on

notifications

let's go

so yeah it's good friday and the markets

are

closed today but there's off market

activity happening in a couple of the

charts

so i may as well do a little review look

at the s p

cannot make this up it is

doing exactly the thing so

s p threw a freaking vertical dart

straight

up into the bottom of the bull channel

and got rejected okay so now

i kind of i have this like expanding you

know

this expanding wedge thing whatever this

thing is called

uh so i still am looking at

a reversal point i still have a

short-term bullish and medium-term

bearish

and long-term bullish outlook okay so

i think we're gonna get stuck on the

bottom of this

bull channel again i think we're gonna

get stuck on here

i think we're gonna bust i think we're

gonna bust down out of this

out of this channel um but

look where the top is pointing the top

of this channel is

up here not quite that hot but it's up

here

at the top of the bull channel

and it actually wouldn't surprise me one

little bit

to see us get up here so

this bottom of the bull channel is major

major resistance because we have

rejected off this thing one two three

four five

six now seven times whatever

like we fell out of this bull channel

and we're underneath it

and we're still underneath it so this is

like the

most massive resistance and this is a

key

place to start looking at uh well taking

profit off of longs

and start looking for short entries and

you can't

well not with options anyway there's

probably some off-market trading stuff

you can do but

anyway the s p is right up

under the bull channel in trouble again

um maybe maybe it is in trouble

if i was saying before like once we get

to this channel like the bullish thing

to do is kind of just try to get some

support and hear

and now i'm like wait a second i know

like look at this look at this uptrend

line that we already painted

like is it gonna just sit here if it

gets in here no

it's not gonna do that if we get in here

man we're gonna go up

and we're gonna go get this trend line

we're gonna go get it

and that will be a ridiculous reversal

point

if s p tries to do that that is going to

fail

real hard right there so

it's still really hard for me to try to

go long well i like don't trade the spy

long anyway ever

because there's always a better play

than that if for long plays you got to

figure out what's moving but

uh man

yeah i it's going to be really hard to

bust into this channel

and now we have a three-day weekend and

the stock market really doesn't stop

moving just because the

market's closed so like it's gonna be

crazy stuff that just happens

off you know off trading hours and who

knows like

by the time the market opens we could be

freaking

up here like out of control we could

still be

back effing this channel from underneath

which would be really bearish

actually i'm not really expecting

one of these kind of weak blooms into

the bottom of the channel at this point

just because we have this up trend line

i think if we get in here i think we're

going to pop

and i think if we get underneath uh

we're gonna break down

out of this thing that's the two

scenarios that i think are

most likely and they're both bare

reversal

scenarios so

right i was super short-term bullish

the last two days maybe on the s p

because we're coming up trying to find

this channel

and now we found it so now i can't be

short-term bearish here

i mean if we get up in here and start

going up

i could maybe be bearish for a day or

something because we're trying to get up

but uh

right now s p is in a bad spot and can't

really trade it anyway

that's the look i guess let me just kind

of pull back out

and show the channel again for anyone

that's just popping in

we've been on this bull channel for

several months here

and you can see the

we started well and this is right around

jan six

man this is exactly january 6 is exactly

when the strong dollar

reversal started and the s p started

hating it started chopping right but we

chopped to the channel

fine and then we chopped down right but

we didn't coil under the channel

we just stabbed and we popped back in

all good still all good

but then feb 15 is like the next strong

dollar reversal and this is when we chop

down out of the channel we start coiling

underneath we start rejecting off the

bottom of the channel

we get this grinding reversal off the

bottom of the channel

then this really makes it look ugly this

is why i can't

i can't trust anything inside of the

bull channel after this grinding

reversal off the bottom

like i'm just straight bearish under the

channel

under the channel but it's an uphill

channel so we go up to the channel this

is all-time highs

uh but we're at the channel now so it's

ugly this ugly

let's just show where the dollar is and

i've been talking about the dollar a lot

but this is not trivial um

we had let me go out to like a weekly

and just show the dollar chart and what

i'm explaining

because we had during this entire

bull run we had this super super weak

dollar channel down

and then yeah right here around jan six

we had this

pop and we broke out of the channel

and then we had the uphill w and now

now we're breaking up to the previous

kind of consolidation zone right so we

pulled back off of it

so this is a strong dollar trend line

and we've had strong dollar trend lines

since

2008 and this is what they look like

like the 2008 crash we pulled down

strong dollar reversal right boom

bim it's like l8 09 11.

these are all strong dollar reversals

but see we pull through

yeah we pull through the trim line and

then it gets steeper

and then we get a 14 may 18

right and now we pull down through that

trend line but this trend line is even

steeper

so this is what i've been saying like

brent johnson's like dollar milkshake

theory

matches the trend line that we're on now

this is a steep

more it's a more steep uh strong dollar

trend line

and strong dollar trend lines can run

for three years

five years stuff like that um so if we

get a five year strong dollar like

that's

pretty angry especially if we do

vertical moves up off of it it's just

really uh

it's really aggressive on well the

market

kind of but i mean i've been looking at

oil

and the freaking oil chart so dumb

because we we had the negative contracts

and trading last year so that just like

completely made the chart look

ridiculous

but every time we get strong dollars it

it really like really hurts oil so let's

see where's this jan

six say like gen six strong dollar

reversals where oil is

still busting out of the channel

so this is really strange like

every time over the last 10 years we got

a strong dollar reversal

knocked oil really hard down

and now oil's been rallying into the

strong dollar

until now i just pulled back

but i don't know

i don't know if oil is in trouble it

usually hates the strong dollar

the stock market usually hates a strong

dollar

but i mean you can see it's rallying

anyway

like it is pulling back it's getting

choppy but it's still rallying

into it um

so it's pretty interesting it's pretty

hard to predict like the market

the market seems to just be running on

margin like we have

international banks loaning a ton of

money to funds

on margin and they're just piling tons

of new money into the market is what it

looks like

and basically as long as that continues

it's gonna be

bullish it's just a ton of new money

coming into the market

i'm not buying the scenario that like

stimulus

checks like some millennials with a

thousand dollar

check are like driving this whole bull

market that's ridiculous like this

is loans from international banks on

margin

it's billions and billions of dollars

from from banks it's new money

um loaned out on margin billions and

billions of dollars

not not part of a

one trillion dollar stimulus thing um

where like one percent of that money is

getting invested in some random stocks

like this is huge huge funds and like

each of these funds is

like billions of billions and they're

driving this thing up anyway that's the

that's the idea

that i have on why it's driving up um

just check a couple other things

bitcoin oh and also like the reason

yeah so bitcoin is just kind of

it's kind of stuck here at this level

for a while like around 59 it's been

kind of chopping and testing it

so i think bitcoins a little hot away

from the moving average

i could see a pullback um

or just the consolidation sideways in

bitcoin

i don't think bitcoins just gonna like

run hot like way

farther away from the moving averages

because it usually doesn't get this far

away

from like this is like the 120 day

like bitcoin you usually will pull back

and check in with the 120 day average

more often than this so

i'm expecting some kind of consolidation

move maybe a pullback in bitcoin

um

what else is happening all right tesla i

was talking about

on friday let me get into like an hourly

chart

so tesla has this downtrend line and

that's what i was saying friday is like

we're running into this down channel

here

i was gonna see if it could make it to

the 700 because it loves it but

um yeah just i just caught this and

pulled back

so that's kind of an obvious

short-term spot to check back on

uh if this falls through down i don't

know

if we get let's see if we get the entire

market getting in trouble under the bull

channel and tesla is here rejecting off

this

trend line then tesla could get in big

trouble like tesla could really drop

and

and you can see the downtrend lines like

we've stabbed this thing

four times so we painted a good

downtrend line

but that doesn't mean we're going to

stab it again like that could be the

last step we got a double

kind of a double bottom here and that

could be the last step down for tesla

but

like here you know we kind of rolled

over and we didn't

we didn't hold a support level we rolled

under it

so it's still drooping it's still headed

down it's still checked hard off of this

uh down channel anyway i see a ton of

risk in tesla especially if the general

market

gets in trouble underneath the bull

channel again i think tesla's going to

be a really aggressive short play

arc invest is almost the same chart

similar down channel

our contesta have been sort of my top

two

shorts recently um because we've we've

just seen like text sort of rotating out

and let me look at the this is a cool

chart

um on the on the nasdaq

versus the spx let me go to the weeklies

and show what's up

that's a really cool one

and so all right so i'm going back to

the 80s

so like this everything bubble bull

market really started in

about 1982 the bonds started bubbling in

the 70s the market started picking up in

the 80s

but you can see here it wasn't until the

90s that tech

and the nasdaq started really

outperforming the general market

and we started bullying and this is the

dot-com bubble bust

which was a big deal but it really

didn't break the trend

i mean it just kind of popped and pulled

back and we just continued

more and more out performance on the

nasdaq and you can see the neckline

of the of the dot-com bubble like we've

just

gone to a point where we're

outperforming even the dot-com bubble

now and we gapped up here across the

neckline so

this is a really interesting spot

because if this is a false breakdown

or a false breakout i'm sorry if it's a

false breakout we're probably gonna gap

back across the neck

and that would be a huge down move on

tech

um which i've been calling just like a

rotation

out of tech um but i mean it's still

pretty much hotter than the whole market

at this point but

um but if we see this move and then we

see like a techish kind of

blah blah market

we could have a fast and hot rotation

out of tech and then attack kind of just

a weak

check performance under the rest of the

market if we start moving down but we're

coiling here

we haven't decided or if we pop here

then tech will just freaking blow up and

go crazy so i'm in the camp that i think

we're gonna break down

and i think we're gonna start rotating

out of tech

and the reason i think that is just um

it's just basic

credit expansion cycle stuff like when

you start a new credit expansion

the bonds will bubble first then tech

and growth will bubble

and then when you get starting to get

near the end of the credit extend

uh expansion near the top of the bubble

the bonds will rotate out first and then

we've seen that after you go to like the

bond chart

you can see that the bonds started

rotating out last year

and they're already like well the rest

of the market was crushing it you've

seen bonds just get weak and

terrible um so bonds could be

bearing for a while they've already

rotated out it looks

to me like tech is going to rotate out

next that's what i've been saying

um so that's a very long term

analysis since like 1982 but like

if tech rotates out it's not a joke like

i'm talking about tech rotating out

hard this year and underperforming for

like 30 years against the rest of the

market

and the things that come in when tech

rotates out is

basic materials minerals metals miners

that sort of stuff

and so those are the charts i've been

watching a little bit more closely

um oh gme let's check in on gma

so we need like a five minute chart on

this one

yeah so so gme

gme has been trying to break this one

94 neckline and it failed again on

friday

and we maybe have a support line here

that could pull us through

the neckline coming into next week but

this is not

this is not like a bubble support line

it's not steep enough

this is just sort of here let me uh

take auto off

so we kind of have a lower we have a

lower support line coming up underneath

and you can see this line is almost the

same angle

that's definitely not a bubble take off

sort of a trend line

let me go out to like a 30 minute

so you can see the shape of it so

i painted this line

yesterday and it looks like

this first bubble is just a huge

crossover and we might be in

we might be in a bigger consolidation

channel out until the end of

april or something like that and so i'm

if we do

if we do pop out like on this week trend

line

i want to see if we get stuck at this

256 or if we can get back up to this

neckline at 3 30.

um because the last time we popped 330

we crashed and then we just came

and got stuck under under this trend

line

so i think we might be

consolidating out around this neckline

for an entire another month

which would be sort of

boring i think but also interesting for

swing trading

because we know that this 194 is the

stickiest spot on gme for like two

months

and anytime we get away from it we can

just do like a swing trade to

the 194. if we crash down here

swing trade it to the 194. if we pop up

here swing trade it to the 194.

um that

either that or we can just get out of

here

and we can actually find a bubble trend

line and actually just like blow this

neck out

and just take off um i do think gme is

gonna bubble out

and take off and it might be

in may

if we just consolidate all of april

around the neckline

it's just going to get more and more and

more boring

and then maybe we'll get a breakout i

don't know that's kind of the look on

gme

i really thought we were going to start

taking off this past week and now we're

just kind of consolidating right under

the neckline

it's like i don't like the chart as much

i don't like the upside as much from

that spot

so anyway that's kind of the look on gme

and then these like metals and minerals

and miners

these are kind of the charts that i'm

looking at um

lode is like a small miner fcx is the

big high momentum mining stock that i've

been following

oh god it's like a daily chart

and show this thing has been bowling

since

since the kilowatt crash and it hasn't

been pulling back with the market

pullbacks

very much a little bit but it's staying

really strong

so this is the sector the momentum

leader in the sector that i like

for for the scenario where tech is

rotating out so like shorting tesla out

shorting arc out during a rotation

and then calling like fcx in

calling it up is kind of the idea that

i'm thinking of

um but yeah anyway this is re pretty

cool a pretty cool

spot to be on the general market just

like

right up under this thing

i mean no joke look at it you cannot

make that up like it

just screamed on off market trading dead

into the back of the channel and just

did a vertical freaking reversal off of

it

and it's amazing um all right so we'll

see what we get

we'll see what kind of action we get on

this thing but uh

it's oh it's so annoying

like the coolest stuff always happens

off hours and you can't trade

options and stuff um

super annoying and also super drama

yeah so

i i think that we get stuck under here

and we just do a weak fallout

maybe a back test over the next few days

and i think it i think it's gonna turn

down

out of this because this expanding

wedge thing is it just

usually falls out it just usually turns

over and falls out

and we've already hit it one two three

four five times

[Music]

yeah that's enough i mean that's enough

hits too already be

we don't have to like go up and paint

the

paint the wedge like hot up here but

it's definitely a target

yeah so hot upside target is up here

at 41.36 that's the top of our little

bull channel

getting back up in there uh danger zone

is right here right now at the

low four thousands

this whole area and yeah i just like to

point back at

this area back here

where we were attacking the crap out of

the bottom of the channel it doesn't

line up perfect on a

minute chart it's better on an hour

chart that's where i drew all the lines

but you can see we just reject reject

reject like this grinding multiple

rejection is really

really mean like if you grind like this

you usually don't come back and do it

again

you usually get more of a sharp a sharp

rejection

uh on on a follow up

it's like that's sort of like calling a

dead cat bounce except

it's kind of ridiculous to call it a

dead cat bounce at

all-time highs it's just a rejection off

the channel

um yeah all right so that's kind of the

look for

uh off market kind of coming into

the weekend

what else i don't know doge let's look

at the doge

the doge is a pretty uh interesting

chart

if you go out to i think dailies you can

see what's going on

yeah look it's pretty obvious it's just

it's just pulling up a really mean trend

line

and this is the most like vertical

angular

it's like a right angle freaking

and

if we stick to this trend line we should

be kind of flagging into

logging into it mid april somewhere

um this is a pretty hot candle there

though that's surprising

you usually will pull kind of down when

you're flagging not

pop up like that like this is a more

typical flag where you're kind of

rolling down while you're flagging into

sport this is a really weird flag

or it's almost up i guess

it's like an angular upward on this leg

but anyway that's a look at dish

it looks like it's gonna be over the

next couple weeks coming into support

and it could take off again

whatever that's enough stuff for now

nothing really going on just the

s p at all-time highs rejecting off the

bull channel no big deal

this not investment advice just a couple

of scenarios or kind of what i'm seeing

on the trend lines

so have a good weekend happy good friday

and

cheers