Trump's Economy: How Much Credit Should He Get?

president Donald Trump has made no

secret of the fact that he thinks that

the economy and the stock market would

be in big trouble

without him tell you what if I ever got

impeached I think the market would crash

I think everybody would be very poor

it's an argument that keeps coming up

we'll probably come up more whatever you

think of his policies whatever you think

of all the scandals and the tweets and

everything else has gone on in his

administration the economy is doing

great and the question is how much

credit does he deserve for all that on

the headline numbers the economy has

been strong no doubt about it

Trump has overseen six consecutive

quarters of economic growth that's not

only been positive but also been above

trend we've also seen big gains in

corporate earnings and the stock market

which is now the longest bull market on

record has continued while he's been

president look at confidence levels

consumer confidence is at its highest

level since 2004 the National Federation

of Independent Business Index which

measures sentiment for small business

owners is at its second highest level

ever and that went up as soon as Trump

got into office some of the other

metrics a little bit of a mixed bag

hiring has slowed somewhat but that

would be expected with the economy where

it is right now in June there were

actually more job openings than there

were people who were classified as

unemployed that is a first for the US

economy food stamp recipients had been

on the decline under President Barack

Obama's administration that decline has

increased somewhat now eight percent

fewer food stamp recipients in Trump's

first 16 months it's not

earth-shattering but it does represent

progress and getting some of those

Americans who have been left behind back

up to speed as far as the economic

recovery goes so the big question how

much of this is due to Trump's policies

and how much credit should he get

general consensus enough to matter we

are giving them a big beautiful

Christmas present in the form of a

tremendous tax cut on the tax cuts many

believe that this long-awaited fiscal

stimulus is exactly what the economy

needs the price tag for these tax cuts

about 1.5 trillion dollars over the

next ten years and is providing a

stimulus that policymakers at the

Federal Reserve and elsewhere have

really been looking for after a decade

of an economy that was basically just

running on monetary policy now the

slashing of regulations is where Trump

has been really effective we're going to

put the regulation industry out of work

and out of business multiple measures

show that regulations have come down

dramatically since Trump took office and

we all remember his executive order we

have to not have two regulations for

every regulation so how do you measure

the impact well business investment is a

great place to look across a variety of

areas like software intellectual

property research and development it's

brought those levels back up to around

2012 levels which of course is not great

but it's turning things in the right

direction even skeptics admit that the

Trump administration has made progress

Mark Zandi the chief economist at

Moody's Analytics had famously said

during the 2016 campaign that if Trump's

policies were implemented as proposed it

would cause a lengthy recession now he

says Trump's policies have added 0.7

percentage points to his GDP projections

not an inconsiderable about when you're

talking about a twenty trillion dollar

economy now of course not everything is

strong one of the most nettlesome parts

about the economy has been wage growth

in fact when taking an account for

inflation worker paychecks of barely

Bice's Trump has done

and that inflation number is something

to keep in mind as the economy picks up

inflation could kick in and that in turn

could trigger the Federal Reserve to

continue to raise rates in fact that an

even faster pace than the market and the

economy anticipates and acted slow grows

down considerably of course was more

fiscal stimulus we're also seeing more

debt in fact the Congressional Budget

Office projects the deficit to hit one

trillion dollars in 2020 for quite a

long time the markets in the economy

have been willing to dismiss it there's

an old adage on Wall Street it doesn't

matter until it matters and that's what

Trump's going to have to wrestle with as

a debt definitely continue to grow but

for now Trump is sitting pretty on a

solid economy and he likes to take

credit for it

the question is how long can that keep