April 23, 2018 - Canadian Dollar looking weak in May...


the Canadian dollar typically performs

well in the month of April so far in

2018 we saw the Canadian dollar I have a

pickup in mid March into April and

recently we started to see the Canada

look like it might be slowing down or

turning down I should say relative to

the US dollar so where do we stand right

now well let's take a look over the last

few years at the price action the

Canadian dollar relative to the US

dollar and I'm also going to show you

the graph of the price of oil West Texas

Intermediate crude now the price of oil

is just one of the many drivers in

effect the exchange rate for the

Canadian dollar but in broad terms when

we see a big rally take place for the

price of oil we tend to see the Canadian

dollar respond positively and vice-versa

if we take a look back here for 2015 we

saw the price of oil go down Canadian

dollar relative to the US dollar went

down then we saw a rally in 2016 for oil

and the Canadian dollar went up at the

same time then we saw in 2016 into mid

2017 we saw the flat period for the oil

and the Canadian all went down relative

to the US dollar now interestingly

enough a little bit later on in 2017 we

saw this rally take place for the price

of well initially here we did see a

little bit of an uptick and and the

price of a Canadian dollar but as the

rally continued the overall trend for

the Canadian dollar has been down

relative to the US dollar which is

interesting because what was taking

place was the the concern had been

flipped over to the interest deferential

and the rising rates in the States and

was focusing on the ten-year bond the

Illinois 10 year bond and that was

helping to drive the case of the u.s.

all about relative to the Canadian

dollar even though the price of oil was

going up so right now we knew that we

were in this challenge straining

downwards so the Canadian dollar overall

has been going down we've had two peaks

here we've just turned down a little bit

here now this is interesting and also

concerning because at least where the

Canadian dollar is that the month of May

tends to be strong for the US dollar

relative to world currencies including

the Canadian dollar so despite the

Canadian are actually having a little

bit of a rally here we might see the

Canadian dollar soften up in the month

of May relative to the US dollar

thank thank you very much something to

think about